ACLED records over 150 events involving cult militias in 2022, resulting in nearly 230 reported fatalities. Banditry and cultism were among the main sources of insecurity, along with increasing electoral violence. Nigeria’s southern states were confronted with occasional outbreaks of violence. Communal militias, largely operating in the North West and the Middle Belt regions, were responsible for over 57% of total reported civilian fatalities recorded by ACLED in 2022.
1 Emmanuel Akinwotu, ‘At least 200 villagers killed by bandits in north-west Nigeria,’ The Guardian, 9 January 2022 States in the Middle Belt region continue to be engulfed in a series of deadly conflicts involving pastoralists and farming communities, which are driven by long-standing disputes over land and resources and compounded by the proliferation of small weapons and widening social divisions. Following an attack that killed at least 200 civilians in Zamfara state, the Nigerian government designated bandits as “terrorists” in January 2022. Alongside another violent jihadist organization, Ansaru, ISWAP has also allegedly been active in the North West, where dozens of bandit groups continued to engage in deadly raids, kidnappings for ransom, and other violent criminal activities. In 2022, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) continued to operate and control territory in the North East and across the Lake Chad Basin, despite suffering setbacks from the military’s counterinsurgency campaign and grappling with ongoing infighting with the Group for the Propagation of the Prophet’s Teachings and Jihad (JAS), Boko Haram’s original name. Yet, Africa’s most populous state will go to the polls on 25 February 2023 against the backdrop of distinct but overlapping security crises across its territory. President Muhammadu Buhari is barred from running for a third term through term limit legislation, while the end of his presidency marks the longest democratic stretch since independence. Nigeria’s federal elections constitute a watershed moment for the country’s democratic history.
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